Have you ever heard of resemblance prediction?
Legendary behavioural scientists Tversky and Kahneman once ran a simple experiment. Here is one. Is Steve a librarian or a farmer.
“Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.”
Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer.
Kahneman later wrote: “The resemblance of Steve’s personality to that of a stereotypical librarian strikes everyone immediately, but equally relevant statistical considerations are almost always ignored. Did it occur to you that there are more than 20 male farmers for each male librarian in the United States.”
Why the Mind Jumps to the Wrong Answer
The mind does not reach for this. It reaches for the resemblance. It chooses the thing that looks most like the thing.
And there is the problem. So much human judgement rests on instinct. We trust familiarity. We trust resemblance. When what we should do is reach first for data and evidence.
Why This Matters for Consultants
For consultants this matters. Our work begins with data and evidence, both qualitative and quantitative. Do not jump to what feels familiar. Notice your biases. Set them aside. Look again.
That is the real discipline behind good judgement.
Reflection question
How quickly do you rely on instinct rather than sit with the evidence before giving advice?
Next Steps
To learn more, visit us to learn about Critical Thinking, the second of our Nine Dimensions of the Very Best Consultants.
Have a great day and good luck with your work.
P.S. The photo of the librarian is also a trick anchoring technique that may have further influenced your thinking.
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